How right was I about 2024?

Evaluating my 2024 predictions for accuracy a year later

In January of 2024, I made predictions about the year to come. Now it’s January 2025. Let’s see how right or wrong I was.

Here are my original 2024 prediction posts:

2024 Predictions: A Female President? Sentient Sex Dolls?

2024 Bonus Predictions: AI Animals and Air Sculpting

The Totals

I’ll go into each prediction below this section, but for those short on time, I’ll drop the spoiler now: I was wrong 50% and right 50% about 2024. Yep.

I was most right in the category of Education and most wrong in the category of Gaming and VR, which makes sense because I’ve been tutoring/summer homeschooling/hybrid schooling my child and I rarely play any video games.

I made 122 predictions about 2024 and got 61 correct if we count my “maybe” in social media as a “yes.” So, an even split. What are the odds of that? I have no idea. Maybe someone better at math can tell me?

I believe 50% is a better ratio than most people get on the

Astral Codex Ten

annual prediction market challenge. If I was a gambling gal, I’d break even over time if this trend held.

This is by no means super scientific. This is my lagoon and I’m a speculation bey.

I also correctly predicted the Republican party would win the 2024 election, but my female president prediction was wrong. You see, back in Jan 2024, I believed Biden would die and Harris would become president prior to the election, but he never died. Instead, Trump almost died. Maybe Biden almost died too, but we didn’t hear about it…

So, by category in order of most correct to least correct:

• Education - 6/7 correct (85.7%)

• Wellness and Leisure - 7/10 correct (70%)

• Social Media - 6(maybe 7)/10 correct (70-65%)

• Books — 6/10 correct (60%)

• The Future is Friends - 3/5 correct (60%)

• The Future is Asian - 6/11 correct (54.54%)

• Beauty and Identity - 3/6 correct (50%)

• Politics - 7/15 correct (46.66%)

• Pop Culture - 4/9 correct (44.44%)

• Recession Era Implications — 3/7 correct (42.85%)

• Technology - 3/8 correct (37.5)

• Movies, TV, and Music - 2/7 correct (28.57%)

• Healthcare - 3/11 correct (27.27%)

• Gaming and VR - 1/6 correct (16.66%)

Last Year’s Prophecies

Now, let’s break down which predictions were correct. I’ve kept them in their original categories. The predictions go from frivolous to more serious as you read on, beginning with silly fashion and finishing with divisive politics.

I made some of these fantastic predictions just in hopes that they would inspire people to execute them. Still hoping that happens with the AI animals and home clothes printers, amongst others.

Recession Era Implications — 3/7 correct

Overall, I’d say the recession-era wasn’t as bad as we’d feared at the beginning of 2024.

1. The rise of “CheapDazzle— Yes. I saw “Cheap Dazzle” everywhere from Walmart to the Runway. Cheap Dazzle is inexpensive bows, pins, patches, croc adornments to spice up clothes when you don’t have the money to buy entirely new clothes. They are the cheapest items available from designers.

2. Micro-Menus — Yes. I saw this in Vegas and even took a picture of the menu, which I can no longer find in my overstuffed camera roll, but these are cheaper, tiny food items at expensive restaurants catering to people on a budget or on Ozempic.

3. Mini Snacks—Yes. I saw tons of Bokksu imitators on my IG feed selling subscriptions to monthly boxes of sample-sized tiny snacks. Again, this is a luxury feeling on a small budget.

4. Sex Dolls and AI Companions: Not really. Not at scale. They promised it for 2025, so maybe we will see the rise of sex robots next year.

5. Subscription Fatigue: No. I think subscriptions are up more than ever and some girl on Only Fans made like a billion dollars a month making Spider-Man costume sex videos. Substack grew. People are still doing subscriptions.

6. YouTube and TikTok will benefit most from subscription fatigue: not really. I think everyone had a pretty good year, and people kept doing subscriptions on every platform selling subscriptions.

7. The Housing Bubble will pop: nope it sure didn’t. Dang.

The Future is Asian - 6/11 correct

Still not Asian enough for me… and I liked the Chinese Three-Body show better than the Netflix one.

1. A Chinese TV show will become a big hit in the US: No. It didn’t happen; however, a Chinese book’s Netflix adaptation was the sixth most-watched Netflix show, and a K-drama took the third top Netflix spot in 2024: Queen of Tears.

2. A Korean beauty store will enter the U.S. market and compete with Sephora and Ulta. — Nope, only in my dreams…

3. Increased demand for all things Japanese— YES. More Americans went to Japan in 2024 than ever before, and Tokyo is the new American Hajj. (I forget which comedian made this joke, but it’s totally true.)

4. More Asian robot restaurants. Yes. Three opened just where I live—in Fort Lauderdale, so I’m assuming they’re all over the place.

5. Major US cities will get Asian mega spas like they have in Toronto. Sadly no. Again, only in my dreams…

6. TikTok will release blockbuster films and books and open a theme park. Nope.

7. Temu will threaten Amazon’s reign over the American consumer. Yes, and they even spent big bucks on a flashy Super Bowl ad.

8. Increased popularity of anime, manga, webtoons, and light novels for American kids. Yes, probably obvious though.

9. Western pop stars will make hits with K-pop and J-pop chord structures. Yes—See Megan Thee Stallion.

10. Move towards Asian storytelling structures, which are more episodic and less 3-act. - I want to say yes, but I’m not really sure.

11. Everyone will get obsessed about the Chinese book The Three-Body Problem’s Netflix adaptation and the show will be a mega hit like Game of Thrones. The trailer: Not really. It wasn’t as good as I’d hoped.

The Future is Friends - 3/5 correct

Can never have enough amazing friends.

1. Continuing decline in marriage. Yes.

2. Development of financial products for co-owning non-family members, like two friends, to buy properties or share health insurance costs. No, not really. Despite the plethora of news articles about this, I don’t see it happening much IRL.

3. Shift towards same-sex friends sharing responsibilities, kids, and finances instead of spouses. See above.

4. More unique living experiences and housing compounds with smaller units, but more and fancier shared amenities for single people. I want to say yes…

5. More emphasis on friend events like “friendship weddings,” friend anniversary parties, Galentines Day, Friendsmas, Friendsgiving. Yes.

Books — 6/10 correct

Ai books didn’t really take off, but Brandon Sanderson continues to soar.

Mastermind fantasy author Brandon Sanderson at his own convention—Dragonsteel. Via his website.

1. Influencer publishing stupidity like Bindery won’t take off. Correct!

2. More and more authors will self-publish, including well-known authors. Correct! This explains. (some may use removepaywall dot com to read)

3. Brandon Sanderson’s books will be made into a Netflix series or blockbuster film. Still waiting…

4. Books will further decentralize and we will see even more niched-down subgenres. Most people will read in micro-niches. Nope. Most people are still reading the same 10 books by the same 10 airport authors.

5. Ai will allow well-branded authors to scale up production and a new hit fandom on par with Harry Potter will emerge in 2024. Not yet, but I loved the Redneck Wizard AI Harry Potter spoof.

6. A backlash to AI and rapid release will spawn slow books or handwritten books, or designer editions of books set at higher prices and produced 100% by humans. No, quite the opposite and we had a flood of AI books.

7. Rise of the book object and the direct sales book experience. Yes. 100%. Saw so many authors doing kickstarters, sprayed edges, and special editions this year and also using shopify to sell direct more than ever.

8. There will be a major AI scandal in the publishing industry related to an author using AI and lying about it or related to publishers making fake AI authors and releasing AI series directly so they don’t have to pay authors. Yes! Lauren Biel and her AI scandal on BookTok!

9. Preference for shorter books or super long books over average length books. Yes! Even a super short “daybook” won the Man Booker prize this year: Orbital, which can be read in like an hour. And the incredibly long Fourth Wing also reigned supreme.

10. Spotify will threaten Audible in the audiobook arena to the point that Audible will have to pivot or merge its subscription with KU. Yep.

Movies, TV, and Music - 2/7 correct

Media stayed mostly boring and derivative. Nothing too exciting.

Screenshot of the AI Twitch streamer Neuro-sama. My daughter explained the turtle to me but I’m still confused.

1. Cable TV will continue to die. Yep.

2. A big player in the alt media will buy a major network. Nope. But it is funny that the Onion tried to buy Alex Jones’s brand.

3. The ease of producing animations and animated films will increase and we will see solo-produced animations and comic book adaptations go viral. No, still waiting.

4. Big Netflix TV shows will get theater runs for the first two episodes before the shows come out on streaming. No, still waiting. All we got was Taylor Swift…

5. Proliferation of custom, AI-generated TV shows, and news. No, but we did see AI generated Twitch streamers and X accounts go viral and become fairly normalized, like Neuro-Sama and @truth_terminal.

6. AI music generation tools will let creators score original movies and shows more easily. - Yes, and I recently spoke with a Hollywood composer who said he can barely support himself now because everyone has gone to AI and library scores for films and TV shows.

7. The alt Olympics will rise and people will prefer watching sports where athletes are allowed to do whatever they want to gain an advantage, use steroids, prosthetics, performance-enhancing drugs, etc. Not yet, but I hear this is coming in 2025.

Wellness and Leisure - 7/10 correct

Bigger than ever and will only grow under MAHA influence. (This is not investment advice but…)

1. Meal delivery subscription services linked to a wearable/tracking device or blood test. Yes. I forget the name, but I’ve seen ads for this.

2. Continued growth of Non-alcoholic drinks industry. Yes. Bigger than ever.

3. Social spas and longevity membership clubs. Yes. So many.

4. Micro-dosing Bufo. Yes. People are definitely doing this.

5. Micro-dosing MDMA. Haven’t really seen this.

6. New recreational drug combos, new euphoria drinks, new magic mushroom strains, and blends. Yes. Everywhere.

7. Trend towards socializing on drugs that aren’t alcohol. Yes. More and more people doing mushrooms at parties.

8. New designer drugs, like shorter-lasting LSD, aka Ultra LSD. STILL WAITING.

9. Hormones will become better understood and HRT will rise in popularity for both women and men. Going with yes. Everyone rich and over 40 is on HRT.

10. Vaginal wearables that track hormone health for women. Haven’t seen this yet, but it must be coming.

Social Media - 6(maybe 7)/10 correct

Will Trump save TikTok is the next question.

1. YouTube will continue to overtake all other social media platforms. Yes

2. Continued decentralization and growth of micro-channels and micro-influencers. Yes.

3. Shift to more private social media like Mighty and Discord. Yes.

4. Shift to subscription-over-ads for those with money. Yes.

5. Podcasting will become more like social media and everyone will have an audio feed where they share short audio messages. I’m gonna go with yes, because podcasts were so huge this year.

6. Many people will leave social media entirely, except for YouTube. No.

7. Another big company will buy Canva or Canva will buy another big company. Nope.

8. Vtubing will get a production innovation and become more mainstream, including AI-run Vtubers. Yes. This happened. Now I see the AI Vtuber almost always first every single time I open Twitch.

9. People will quietly return to X/twitter because they can’t resist the election drama. Though many left, they claim X has more people now than ever, so I don’t really know. I’m gonna go with not sure.

10. More legal, financial, and healthcare services targeting customers working in the creator economy. — Sadly no. Only wishful thinking here.

Gaming and VR - 1/6 correct

VR was a total flop.

1. Video game production will get a major innovation so that more people can self-publish video games. No

2. Apple Vision will be a hot gift item and more people will work from home using Apple Vision. Nope. Total flop.

3. Apple Vision will do a big partnership with a music artist or artists to launch Apple Vision with some kind of live concert experience. Something on par with U2’s Vegas Sphere launch. No, but Meta did it with Doja Cat and Charlie XCX.

4. Continued effort by Facebook to push metaverse and to launch influencer and celebrity AI clones in metaverse like what was previewed with Lex Fridman and Mark Zuckerberg, but bringing that to users so you can hang out with AI clones of your favorite celebrities. Nope. Didn’t happen yet.

5. Apple Vision will partner with Peloton to popularize VR fitness experiences. Yep. You can do Peloton classes now in Apple Vision Pro, but probably very few do this.

6. Big ticket/celebrity MMA fights in Metaverse or on Apple Vision: No, but Netflix did it with the Jake Paul/Tyson Fight live stream.

Pop Culture - 4/9 correct

Rappers rapped non-stop about misogyny and committing crimes and yet we’re still surprised.

One of the many DIddy Docs teased in 2024.

1. Continued trend of brands sponsoring celebrity real life events like romances, weddings, baby births, and funerals. Yep. See Jenifer Lopez promoting her alcohol brand during her divorce from Ben Affleck.

2. P. Diddy docuseries will drop produced by Fifty Cent and be as scandalous as the R. Kelly lifetime series. Counting this as a yes! It was very much announced and it’s scandalous.

3. Marilyn Manson scandalous docuseries. We’re still waiting.

4. Jay Z scandal. OH, IT SURE DID!

5. Lizzo will debut her new, skinner Ozempic body, and become a weight loss ambassador type. Going with yes. She is def skinnier, making health and workout posts, and I do believe it’s Ozempic.

6. Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet baby. Haha still waiting.

7. Ariana Grande and Sponge Bob Baby. No, instead we got Wicked and interracial friendship eating disorder finger holds.

8. Taylor Swift will perform at the Super Bowl and get proposed to as part of the show. No, but she may as well have. Sick of her.

9. Kim and Khloé Kardashian will both get engaged in separate Hulu show reveals. No, but I would watch this.

Technology - 3/8 correct

They say in 2025 women will have more slx with robots than men, but it hasn’t happened yet.

1. Fully automated retail stores. Yes. They even opened one in my local airport.

2. Tesla will take advanced orders for the Tesla Robot, and do a dazzling new robot demo. No, wishful thinking on the pre-orders, but they did do a demo and the cyber trucks got delivered!

3. New building materials, textiles, medical devices, tools, and software will be invented by AI. Sure. Especially software.

4. Ai stuffed animals and character figurines for kids and adults. No, but I want these. Why don’t we have these already?

5. Celebrity AI talking figurines trained on the celebrity’s data to sound exactly like them but powered by ChatGPT-type technology so that they can converse on any subject. No, but I don’t know why not.

6. Ability to communicate with other animal species. Yes! They dialogued with the whales! Probably annoyed the whales…

7. Rise of smart shoes. Not yet.

8. Sewing will see a major innovation and custom tailoring and 3D clothing printing will come to consumers at home. Still waiting…

Beauty and Identity - 3/6 correct

We can all live out our genX child fantasies now and become Kate Moss skinny.

I found this so HILARIOUS

1. People will increasingly prefer to look muscular vs thin- Sadly no and everyone got skinnier than ever.

2. Plastic surgery and fillers will become more popular with men. Yes.

3. More middle-aged women will transition to being men. Nope, lol.

4. Air sculpting will gain in popularity. Going with yes. More people getting this type of lipo than ever and it’s like a Groupon in South Florida.

5. Ozempic and its spinoffs will have a scandal but will continue to be widely used. No, because there was no scandal. Just everyone loves Ozempic so much.

6. Everyday makeup will be more like Hunger Games Capital costume makeup. Yes. See Chappell Roan and GRWM videos.

Education - 6/7 correct

Public schools are dead.

1. Private schools will continue to grow as public schools are unable to keep up with the rapid pace of innovation driven by AI. Yes. I even moved my daughter into a small, tech-focused private school, and since I moved her they’ve opened more locations. It’s been amazing. Highly recommend. It’s a mix of in-person and work from home, which has been great and has allowed us to travel more. Check out Xceed Preparatory Academy.

2. Growth of home school clusters, alternative schools with back-to-nature elements, Forest Schools, and Waldorf schools as a rebuttal to screen addictions in kids. Yes. People want anything besides public school. Even my once-pro-public school cleaning lady recently moved her child into an affordable forest school.

3. Less liberal arts majors. Yes. College in general is less desirable I think, and there were major university scandals in 2024 and resignations and closures.

4. Expensive undergrad is out. Yes. People don’t want massive student debt in the AI era where they don’t have any confidence in their future job security.

5. As AI and machines outperform humans, the need for people to go to medical and law school for SO long will dwindle and people will enter fields faster and get degrees and certifications faster. Waiting.

6. We will find ways to speed up education in general. Yes.

7. We will either speed up language learning or replace it with simultaneous translating machines. Yes. I think the latter. ChatGPT already does a pretty great job.

Healthcare - 3/11 correct

Major shakeups I never saw coming and I hope they continue.

1. A new, more reliable, and safe depression cure will be invented. It sure wasn’t…

2. As AI speeds up diagnostic health care, fewer things will require prescriptions and common prescriptions will be automated so you don’t need to see a doctor just to get a prescription, but can use an online questionnaire or app to get prescribed something instead. Nope, wishful thinking.

3. Customer experience-focused healthcare that becomes more like Apple products and the Apple Store with a focus on simplicity and less waiting, less insurance mess, more automation, and more efficiency. Cooler. HAHA no. The opposite.

4. The increase in autism diagnoses and a growing demand for autism services will lead more people to work in this field, providing education or support services for people and families impacted by autism. Gonna go with yes.

5. Improved understanding of autism and also more autism conspiracy theories, as well as new developments in the treatment of symptoms and new controversy over whether the condition should be treated or not. Yes…

6. Major advancement in the treatment of autoimmune disorders. Nope.

7. We will find a cure for the common cold. Still waiting.

8. Geotracking chip implants for kids on the spectrum prone to elopement. Still waiting.

9. Geotracking chip implants for adults with dementia. Why not people?

10. Major medical innovations for age-related ailments. Yes. Bryan Johnson and Ozempic.

11. A drug will be developed that allows people to need less sleep. Not yet, but waiting.

Politics - 7/15 correct

Brat summer gave way to old daddy winter.

We came so close to having a female president.

1. We will finally get a female U.S. president — We came soooo close.

2. We will finally get a GenX U.S. president — We came soooo close.

3. There will be a surprise celebrity candidate on the ballot — It wasn’t a surprise…

4. More debate between humanists vs. speciesists — Yes, especially around AI and Elon Musk.

5. More debate between decals vs. e/acc— Yes and accelerationists got more publicity.

6. The economy, AI ethics, and climate change will be the biggest issues in the U.S. election. No. I’d say it was the economy, immigration, and abortion.

7. Support for Israel will be the most divisive issue in the U.S. presidential election - nope, I’d say it was immigration or abortion.

8. A Republican will be elected president. Correct.

9. Joe Rogan and Spotify will be accused of election interference. Correct.

10. X and Elon Musk will be accused of election interference. Correct.

11. There will be continued attempts to ban TikTok. Correct.

12. Major cyber attack. Yes! The BSOD!

13. Iran’s current regime will be overthrown and Iran will get their version of an Arab Spring revolution. Nope, just wishful thinking.

14. Electrical grid attack that will take out a major city and cause panic. Not really, thankfully, but we did have devastating hurricanes.

15. Major state surveillance scandal involving animals. Nope. Give it time…

The Future and 2025?

I decided not to predict 2025. With my 50/50 results, I’m not sure I’m the greatest fortune teller, but I welcome you to make predictions.

My only hunch is that it’s going to be a great and exciting year. I’m optimistic about everything!

Now You

What did you get right or wrong about 2024?

What are your predictions for 2025?

What do you really want to see happen in 2025?

If you could wave a magic wand for 2025…

XXXOOO

Charlotte Dune