Some things I firmly agree with you on as long-term trends:
* Influence of Asian culture, especially anime
* Rise of friendships and affinity groups as new social structures (+ group homes)
* Going alcohol-free continues to take off
* Ongoing development in AI and automation
* Normalization of cosmetic surgery for both men and women
* Growth of private schools, homeschool clusters, and alternative schooling methods
* Increase in autism identification and formation of an autism-related culture
* AI companions (possibly many years out though)
Some things you marked as incorrect that might be more correct than you thought:
"The alt Olympics will rise..."
The Enhanced Games aren't here yet (hopefully later in 2025) but the Cybathlon has been running for several years (though it isn't quite popular yet). https://cybathlon.com/en
"Many people will leave social media entirely, except for YouTube."
How would you know? (jk)
"Ai stuffed animals and character figurines for kids and adults."
AI plushies exist, but apparently aren't super popular (I think they should be):
Public schools are dead. That’s for sure. It’s been that way for a long time. I used to teach middle school in public school settings. I’d never go back again as the educational standards are abysmal. Putting my kids in private school was the best decision I ever made. Even though my kids were thoroughly challenged with lots of homework — and lots of complaints at the time, they are grateful now. So glad those days are behind me.
As much as appreciate the idea of a liberal education at the college level because it’s widens one’s perspective, I think those days are over. English, history and anthropology majors are not employable. As you mentioned, university education is too expensive. But as the boomer children (the millennials) generation ages out of universities (i.e. — once they reach their mid twenties), there will be more supply for K-12 & college education than demand. This is my prediction for the housing market as well. The demand for housing will shift because of an aging population. Within ten to fifteen years, the housing market will shrink in non-metro locations. So, will the price of houses. Unless future generations entering the housing market will be forced to rent as all property has been bought up in our speculative economy. Foreign Asian investors are already buying up every piece of property on the west coast from San Diego to British Columbia that they can acquire. Not sure how those markets will play out.
Same. I feel so bad for people who can’t afford private school and are stuck with a bad public school. It just is very obvious to me that the government shouldn’t be running schools because they don’t really run anything well.
I do think university is valuable though and I hope we can reduce the costs.
Not sure about shrinkage in non-metro areas because with telework more people are choosing rural.
People are leaving metro areas. You’ve got a point. It is unfortunate that people cannot afford private school. That’s where some sort of voucher system might help. I’m not very ideologically consistent because I’m actually liberal, but when it comes to education, I’m rather conservative. I think it’s because of what I experienced working in public schools. I also did graduate work in educational theory and reform. Public schools don’t get better even when you throw more money at them. There’s so many social issues that need to be addressed.
The Housing Bubble will pop: nope it sure didn’t. Dang.
That's because it's a housing crunch. Prices will only deflate if we build housing and we won't because housing values are more important to the American economy than housing people.
The ease of producing animations and animated films will increase and we will see solo-produced animations and comic book adaptations go viral. No, still waiting.
Not sure what your threshold for virility is but Flow is really getting buzz and butts in seats and is a very low budget, single creator led Latvian animation. I personally would count it.
Marilyn Manson scandalous docuseries. We’re still waiting.
Yeah I'm surprised, and a little annoyed, that Manson's getting away with it. (Side note I'm angry about it. Manson's whole appeal to me in the 90s and 00s was that his music was dark BECAUSE it was safe, a place for lonely disaffected kids to feel their things and know others understood them, and then it turned out he wasn't safe. Fucker.)
As AI speeds up diagnostic health care, fewer things will require prescriptions and common prescriptions will be automated so you don’t need to see a doctor just to get a prescription, but can use an online questionnaire or app to get prescribed something instead. Nope, wishful thinking.
My read here is that anything AI can do to help speed up or cheapen health or social services will be delayed by political handwringing about things like "moral hazard." America is just way too fundamentally moralistic about things like poverty and health to ever accept solutions that don't tell a story of individual endeavor and work. This is why almost all of the faith-based Angel Studios movies in 2024 are about people charitably aiding the sick, the dispossessed, orphans, and immigrants, but the folks who go to see those movies are against Medicaid expansion, social services interfering with families, and accepting refugees and immigration. Charity is heroic whereas systemic political change allows "the wrong people" to benefit (And I don't mean that as a racial / ethnic thing but as a morality narrative thing)
The pearl-clutching itself will not actually be around deservedness but the opposite, conspiracy theories of the AI culling the accidentally undeserving. "Death panels" all over again.
So agree with your last take on health care. Love this whole comment really. I haven’t heard of Flow, but Latvia has a special place in my heart. I will look for that and watch it tonight! Thank you!
And interesting language shift on housing bubble vs housing crunch. When I examine my own thoughts on this, I realize I’m thinking about luxury properties because I live in an area with insane prices where 50% of the houses are over 10 million dollars, but in any other place they’d be considered luxury.
But you’re right, it’s a housing shortage combined with bank and gov overreach, corporate takeover of housing, and wealth inequality.
"When I examine my own thoughts on this, I realize I’m thinking about luxury properties because I live in an area with insane prices where 50% of the houses are over 10 million dollars,"
That's part of the crunch. Under our current NIMBYist environment, these are the only housing that can get built. And the main reason they can get built is because they aren't domiciles, they're investments.
Yep 100%. I just actually recently taught my mother this word—NIMBy because she was complaining about construction. I think a lot of folks are totally unaware of how these attitudes impact others. She had not considered it, nor did she know the term.
Great post!
Some things I firmly agree with you on as long-term trends:
* Influence of Asian culture, especially anime
* Rise of friendships and affinity groups as new social structures (+ group homes)
* Going alcohol-free continues to take off
* Ongoing development in AI and automation
* Normalization of cosmetic surgery for both men and women
* Growth of private schools, homeschool clusters, and alternative schooling methods
* Increase in autism identification and formation of an autism-related culture
* AI companions (possibly many years out though)
Some things you marked as incorrect that might be more correct than you thought:
"The alt Olympics will rise..."
The Enhanced Games aren't here yet (hopefully later in 2025) but the Cybathlon has been running for several years (though it isn't quite popular yet). https://cybathlon.com/en
"Many people will leave social media entirely, except for YouTube."
How would you know? (jk)
"Ai stuffed animals and character figurines for kids and adults."
AI plushies exist, but apparently aren't super popular (I think they should be):
https://heycurio.com/
"Support for Israel will be the most divisive issue in the U.S. presidential election."
While this wasn't the most visible issue, it was still highly visible, and arguably it may have been the decisive issue.
Public schools are dead. That’s for sure. It’s been that way for a long time. I used to teach middle school in public school settings. I’d never go back again as the educational standards are abysmal. Putting my kids in private school was the best decision I ever made. Even though my kids were thoroughly challenged with lots of homework — and lots of complaints at the time, they are grateful now. So glad those days are behind me.
As much as appreciate the idea of a liberal education at the college level because it’s widens one’s perspective, I think those days are over. English, history and anthropology majors are not employable. As you mentioned, university education is too expensive. But as the boomer children (the millennials) generation ages out of universities (i.e. — once they reach their mid twenties), there will be more supply for K-12 & college education than demand. This is my prediction for the housing market as well. The demand for housing will shift because of an aging population. Within ten to fifteen years, the housing market will shrink in non-metro locations. So, will the price of houses. Unless future generations entering the housing market will be forced to rent as all property has been bought up in our speculative economy. Foreign Asian investors are already buying up every piece of property on the west coast from San Diego to British Columbia that they can acquire. Not sure how those markets will play out.
Same. I feel so bad for people who can’t afford private school and are stuck with a bad public school. It just is very obvious to me that the government shouldn’t be running schools because they don’t really run anything well.
I do think university is valuable though and I hope we can reduce the costs.
Not sure about shrinkage in non-metro areas because with telework more people are choosing rural.
People are leaving metro areas. You’ve got a point. It is unfortunate that people cannot afford private school. That’s where some sort of voucher system might help. I’m not very ideologically consistent because I’m actually liberal, but when it comes to education, I’m rather conservative. I think it’s because of what I experienced working in public schools. I also did graduate work in educational theory and reform. Public schools don’t get better even when you throw more money at them. There’s so many social issues that need to be addressed.
Same. And I’ve made the same conclusions.
The Housing Bubble will pop: nope it sure didn’t. Dang.
That's because it's a housing crunch. Prices will only deflate if we build housing and we won't because housing values are more important to the American economy than housing people.
The ease of producing animations and animated films will increase and we will see solo-produced animations and comic book adaptations go viral. No, still waiting.
Not sure what your threshold for virility is but Flow is really getting buzz and butts in seats and is a very low budget, single creator led Latvian animation. I personally would count it.
Marilyn Manson scandalous docuseries. We’re still waiting.
Yeah I'm surprised, and a little annoyed, that Manson's getting away with it. (Side note I'm angry about it. Manson's whole appeal to me in the 90s and 00s was that his music was dark BECAUSE it was safe, a place for lonely disaffected kids to feel their things and know others understood them, and then it turned out he wasn't safe. Fucker.)
As AI speeds up diagnostic health care, fewer things will require prescriptions and common prescriptions will be automated so you don’t need to see a doctor just to get a prescription, but can use an online questionnaire or app to get prescribed something instead. Nope, wishful thinking.
My read here is that anything AI can do to help speed up or cheapen health or social services will be delayed by political handwringing about things like "moral hazard." America is just way too fundamentally moralistic about things like poverty and health to ever accept solutions that don't tell a story of individual endeavor and work. This is why almost all of the faith-based Angel Studios movies in 2024 are about people charitably aiding the sick, the dispossessed, orphans, and immigrants, but the folks who go to see those movies are against Medicaid expansion, social services interfering with families, and accepting refugees and immigration. Charity is heroic whereas systemic political change allows "the wrong people" to benefit (And I don't mean that as a racial / ethnic thing but as a morality narrative thing)
The pearl-clutching itself will not actually be around deservedness but the opposite, conspiracy theories of the AI culling the accidentally undeserving. "Death panels" all over again.
So agree with your last take on health care. Love this whole comment really. I haven’t heard of Flow, but Latvia has a special place in my heart. I will look for that and watch it tonight! Thank you!
And interesting language shift on housing bubble vs housing crunch. When I examine my own thoughts on this, I realize I’m thinking about luxury properties because I live in an area with insane prices where 50% of the houses are over 10 million dollars, but in any other place they’d be considered luxury.
But you’re right, it’s a housing shortage combined with bank and gov overreach, corporate takeover of housing, and wealth inequality.
Great comments!
"When I examine my own thoughts on this, I realize I’m thinking about luxury properties because I live in an area with insane prices where 50% of the houses are over 10 million dollars,"
That's part of the crunch. Under our current NIMBYist environment, these are the only housing that can get built. And the main reason they can get built is because they aren't domiciles, they're investments.
Yep 100%. I just actually recently taught my mother this word—NIMBy because she was complaining about construction. I think a lot of folks are totally unaware of how these attitudes impact others. She had not considered it, nor did she know the term.